Going fast is good

UFC 214 BETTING CHEAT SHEET: ODDS ANALYSIS AND PREVIEW

While it won’t be the biggest battle sports event of this summer, UFC 214 is the biggest MMA event of the entire year. On top of the Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier rematch, the card features two extra title bouts, contenders and entertaining fights throughout.
Brad Taschuk of MMAOddsBreaker.com, takes a peek at where the betting odds have moved for all 12 fights since opening lines (indicated in brackets) were released and he gives his thoughts on each matchup. All lines are courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Jon Jones (-280) vs. Daniel Cormier (+220)
Jones was a -170 favorite first time these two scrapped and some naively anticipated the line would be similar this time around. But, it seems that Jones’ legal issues, run-in with USADA and layoff hasn’t had the impact expected on the line. It’s hard to blame bettors Cormier is currently 38-years-old, has been through some hard battles since their very first meeting, and Jones won each component of that first battle. Expect something similar – if not more dominant – that time around.
Irrespective of how seriously he takes his groundwork, Jones is the kind of fighter that rises to the occasion like few others. To him, this is the greatest occasion. Cormier is his main rival and he’s the opportunity to regain the belt he never lost against him. That combination will lead to a huge performance from Jones. Expect him to dispatch Cormier and re-assert his dominance in the division.
Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. Demian Maia (+160)
Much like the main event, this line hasn’t seen much motion. Given the contrasting styles, that is not hard to trust. There’s a contingent of people who believe Woodley is going to starch Maia using the first punch he throws. They could very well be right. The other side of this coin is made up of those who believe that Maia can shut the space, latch onto Woodley such as he has so many others and only dominate with his grappling. They are right as well. Woodley’s tendency to back himself against the cage and perform counter-puncher is going to be his passing. Maia has gotten so good at entering the clinch when not under pressure that he should be able to make Woodley miss after. Despite a high-level wrestler the likes of Woodley, once Maia gets his hands on you, that is a world of trouble.
The Brazilian’s ability to initiate Jiu-Jitsu exchanges without hitting traditional takedowns is next to none (he has perfected the single leg to back take) and Woodley being the kind of guy who likes to explode out of positions will only hurt him after that happens. It is kind of astonishing that Maia by Sub pays an excess buck (+275 as of Thursday morning), because Woodley will not have the ability to endure 25 moments of Maia engaging in the sort of fight he wishes to. The other choice is most likely a quick Woodley KO (+350 for the champ in Round 1, by the way).
Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200) vs. Tonya Evinger (+600)
This battle being bettable is dependent on which type of bettor you are. In case you have no difficulty throwing a massive lineup in a parlay, the Cyborg moneyline (at almost -1400), or Cyborg ITD (almost -700) are almost sure things. If that is not really your style, neither will probably be laying nearly 2-to-1 on a prop such as Cyborg Round 1.
The only case I could make for a drama relies on Evinger’s strength. She has taken damage in many of her fights and persevered and she likely won’t return to beat Cyborg in this one after a rough start, there’s an outside shot she can survive five minutes. But even the prices for”Fight Begins Round two” and Cyborg Round 2 have dropped considerably (down to +150 and +450( respectively), which makes them less appealing even to someone who is constantly on the search for some round robin legs.
Robbie Lawler (-175) vs. Donald Cerrone (+135)
It’s a shame this fight is occurring after both men have seemingly passed their peak in terms of durability, because a war with Lawler and Cerrone at their best are a thing to behold. This battle will return to distance direction and in-fight choices. Lawler wants to be indoors, Cerrone wants to be outdoors. The difficulty for Cerrone is that Lawler’s consistent pressure will gradually see him get indoors and at that point, anticipate Cerrone to be far too willing to oblige him that the war he’s searching for. While this will grant us the kind of struggle we would like to see, don’t expect it to finish well for Cerrone.

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